This marketing mystery is still unresolved! Who can foresee the reading habits of today’s ten-year-old, ten years from now? A solution may be just around the corner.
     Happening now: Amazon breaks out its new, more powerful DX Kindle Reader. Google announces, “We’re getting serious!”  They’ll enable publishers to sell digital versions of their newest books direct to consumers. Apple’s innovative team is huddled on the sidelines.
     All three know that an accurate prediction will change important parts of the communications industry: books, magazines and newspapers. Rebecca Jennings, leading analyst from Forrester Research, explained: “Understanding where online integration fits in the media mix is a critical challenge facing all marketers.”
     Consider this fact: Reading is the direct opposite of television. Jim Trelease, author of “The Read Aloud Handbook” identifies the difference. “Reading requires and helps develop a longer attention span. Television breaks programs into eight-minute segments; it requires and encourages a short attention span.”
     The Internet is populated largely by younger generations. More than half of the adult Internet population is between 18 and 44 years old. But since 2005, the 70/75 year-olds show the largest percentage increase in use: 45% are now online. Both young and old pursue downloads, online travel reservations and work-related research more equally. (pewresearch.org)
     Now, connect to a new study from the National Endowment for the Arts: “A definitive increase in rates and numbers of American adults read literature (novels and short stories, plays, or poems), with the biggest increases among young adults, ages 18/24. Since 2002, reading has increased at the sharpest rate: 20 percent among Hispanic Americans, 15 percent among African Americans, and eight percent among Whites.” (arts.gov)
     Then, include the eBook: At the 60th Frankfurt Germany Book Fair – the world’s largest – organizers touted, “Electronic book sales should surpass those of classic models by 2018.” That might be reasonable given the 52% eBook sales growth logged by major publishers during 2008. And that’s without including the Kindle impact.
     Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon.com, labels the Kindle eBook Reader as the most important thing Amazon has ever done. “It's so ambitious to take something as highly evolved as the book and improve upon it. And maybe even change the way people read.” Launched in November 2007, the Kindle sold out in less than six hours and remained on back-order until April 2008.
     Amazon.com is booking pre-orders for its new DXKindle, a larger device with a 9.7-inch display suitable for reading newspapers, magazines and academic textbooks.   
     Adrian Sannier, technology officer at Arizona State University, represents one of six universities launching pilot programs with the DXKindle. Sannier confirmed, “The most important thing about the new DXKindle is its existence in an ecosystem that Amazon is creating.” He compared the Kindle to Apple's iPod: “It's all the elements coming together that makes this attempt so different.”
      At the annual BookExpo America Conference in New York on May 31st, Google threw down the gauntlet in the eBook market. Google has already made its 1.5-million public domain books available for reading on mobile phones as well as the Sony Reader, the Kindle’s largest competitor.
     Tom Turvey, director of strategic partnerships at Google, said “Google’s program would allow consumers to read books on any device with Internet access, including mobile phones, rather than being limited to dedicated reading devices like the Amazon Kindle. We don’t believe that having a silo or a proprietary system is the way that eBooks will go.”
     My take? Without doubt each book, newspaper and magazine publisher must watch this battlefield very carefully. The DXKindle can provide sorely needed monetization. Concerns will be more directed to fulfillment and subscriber management than to digital rights management. But keep your eye on Apple.

     Find new ideas and marketing guidelines in Jack G Hardy's IDEA Vault.

Jack G Hardy